March 3, 2010 is fast approaching and with the distraction of the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, the focus on the trade deadline hasn’t been as rampant as in recent years. The Montreal Canadiens are in somewhat of a predicament depending on your perspective.

After 44 games, the Habs currently sit eighth (45 points) in the Eastern Conference, grasping at the last playoff spot. In the Western Conference, 45 points would land the Habs in 11th spot, behind the Dallas Stars. Everyone knows that the Western Conference is stronger than the Eastern Conference, so even that comparison is somewhat unfair, but the Habs are really in a bind by this position.
If things went sour early on caused by the injuries to Andrei Markov and Brian Gionta, combined with the poor goaltending offered by Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak, then decisions at this point of the season would be easier. However, these injuries didn’t hurt the Habs overall and the goaltending has been excellent on the whole thus far. The Habs are still inconsistent in many facets – scoring, defense, and even special teams, but their placement in the standings doesn’t help matters much.
After a disappointing showing in the 2009 playoffs, would a similar result be worth the pursuit? To finish in eighth for the 2010 playoffs would mean playing either New Jersey, Buffalo, or Washington at this point (if the three contenders for the division push for the Conference title), but could that mean another early exit? Just recently, the Habs were playing at a high level with the return of Markov and riding the hot hand of Halak, but that cooled off too – now they are having trouble winning at home.
The reason their position in the standings is an issue is that the team is good enough to make it, but possibly not good enough to make a real run for the Cup. Is the team really only a few pieces away from becoming contenders, or is that really just the media making more out of a lineup that has many holes on paper? Coach Jacques Martin’s defensive schemes have yet to work and the team has an anemic offense. Scott Gomez is playing like a Tier II centre as expected and future free agent Tomas Plekanec may become a trade casualty depending on the Habs position in late February.
This brings me to the analysis itself. The Habs currently have 14 players signed for 2010-11. They have five unrestricted free agents (two forwards and three defensemen), and also have eight players that will become restricted free agents (in which only two are eligible for arbitration).
The question marks remain as to what players will be back next season? GM Bob Gainey already did an overhaul this past off-season making some odd trades (e.g. Gomez) and letting veteran leaders walk (Alexei Kovalev and Saku Koivu). The salary saved on Koivu and Kovalev might not have been spent wisely and the situation is getting murkier now that potential free agents are playing well.
Here are some of the questions that someone needs to answer – won’t be me, but I am hoping Gainey will have an answer. By March 3, 2010, we might know the real answers:
1. Tomas Plekanec – Sign him or let him go? He had a tough 2008-09 campaign, but has rebounded as the true offensive leader on this team. Where would the Habs be if they didn’t sign him for the one-year, $2.75 M that they have him for now. Plekanec could be the elite centre the team has wanted, but the bad taste of the 2008-09 campaign might influence the future. If he stays, he’ll be in the $4 M category – too much?
2. Jaroslav Halak – Trade him or keep him until end of 2010 playoffs? With the goaltending situation becoming more clear for possible trade partners such as the Philadelphia Flyers or even the Edmonton Oilers, Halak’s stock is quite high, but more so as a free agent acquisition (similar to what Craig Anderson did in Colorado). The Habs might be better served to ride both Halak and Price, as Price is the obvious choice for re-signing. Although Price may not be better than Halak, Halak’s request for trade seals the deal of him not being a player on this roster sometime in 2010. May be sooner than later, but I doubt Gainey would let him go now for a 2nd round pick.
3. Marc-Andre Bergeron – Why not? Simple question eh? At $750k, he was a steal and a dark horse necessity with Markov’s freakish injury. However, Bergeron has been rejuvenated in Montreal and being a native of Quebec doesn’t hurt. At 22 points and the versatility to play forward and defense, not to mention serve as a complementary power play partner to Markov that was missing since Mark Streit or Sheldon Souray both left, this is probably the easiest cap decision to make.
4. Carey Price – How much? Not as simple as letting Halak leave or trading Halak, but this one is up for debate. His numbers do not put him in the elite class in the NHL, and apart from his rookie statistics, the jury is still out whether Price can retain the number one job in this hotbed of hockey. Media scrutiny has gotten him rattled at times and he’s had long stretches of bad play or sitting on the bench behind Halak. $3-$4 M might be too much to pay this guy, but the Habs have put all their eggs in the basket hanging precariously on his neck. As a free agent, he could end up being a back-up somewhere else or could feel “relieved” like Guillaume Latendresse after he leaves. However, Gainey’s career is pinned on Price now… so he’s back for good.
5. Buyouts – Are there any salaries worth eating instead of paying? After doing the research, there are many teams that are still paying ludicrous buyouts (e.g. New York Islanders, Toronto Maple Leafs). However, alleviating the presence of “dead wood” type players helps in the long-term. I believe Roman Hamrlik could fit into this definition and possibly even Scott Gomez. Hamrlik hasn’t played poorly, but at $5.5 M per season for 2010-11, that is a lot to pay for a 30 points or less #4 defenseman. Like Price, Gomez is a major transaction linked to Gainey, so Gainey would not dare do anything with Gomez’s salary – or risk admitting he was wrong in acquiring him. Gionta and Gomez was a nice experiment, but it was funny to see Mike Cammalleri gel with Andrei Kostitsyn and Plekanec instead. Gomez isn’t going anywhere, so it will be interesting to see how much he generates for $8 M (currently prorated to 44 games, he has five goals and 22 assists – 27 points = $159k per point).
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Tags: Alexei Kovalev, Andrei Markov, Bob Gainey, Brian Gionta, Carey Price, Craig Anderson, Jacques Martin, Jaroslav Halak, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Mark Streit, Mike Cammalleri, Roman Hamrlik, Saku Koivu, Scott Gomez, Sheldon Souray, Tomas Plekanec